PAC-12 vs SEC comparison 10-21-12

Here is how the SEC stacks up vs the PAC-12 right now:

#1 - Alabama 7-0
#2 - Florida 7-0
#6 - LSU 7-1
#10 - Georgia 6-1
#11 - Mississippi St 7-0
#13 - South Carolina 6-2
#20 - Texas A&M 5-2
Ole Miss 4-3
Vandy 3-4
Tenn 3-4
Missouri 3-4
Arkansas 3-4
Auburn 1-6
Kentucky 1-7

#4 - Oregon 7-0
#7 - Oregon St 6-0
#9 - USC 6-1
#17 - Stanford 5-2
ASU 5-2
UCLA 5-2
Arizona 4-3
Washington 3-4
Cal 3-5
WSU 2-5
Utah 2-5
Colorado 1-6


Top Ten Teams: Both conferences have three. Let's look at LSU vs USC, both have one loss.

USC Wins: Hawaii, Syracuse, Cal, Washington, Utah, Colorado
USC Losses: Stanford
LSU Wins: North Texas, Washington, Idaho, Towson, Auburn, SC, Texas A&M
LSU Losses: Florida

I would say at this time both teams are basically equal. Neither has beaten any teams that have proven to be outstanding (I'll get to South Carolina and Texas A&M in a minute).  Both handled Washington and lost to BCS ranked teams.

Alabama Wins: Michigan, W. Kentucky, Arkansas, Fl Atl, Ole Miss, Missouri, Tenn
Florida Wins: BG, Texas A&M, Tenn, Kentucky, LSU, Vandy, South Carolina
Oregon Wins: Ark St, Fresno St, Tenn Tech, Arizona, WSU, Wash, ASU
Oregon St Wins: Wisc, UCLA, WSU, Arizona, BYU, Utah

Out of the top four ranked teams, if you look at body of work, Florida should be #1, Alabama #2 (they get the nod over OSU because OSU beat #13 Wisc, and Alabama beat #8 Michigan), OSU #3, Oregon #4. The eye test tells you differently, but RIGHT NOW, this is the order of what teams have proven. This could change depending on how OSU does against USC and Oregon.

Looking at the top three programs of each conference and their rankings seem legit. The order could be argued, but each team controls their own destiny. BCS/rankings are pretty accurate (again, the order could be argued, but will clear up by the end of the year).

Let's look at the middle of each conference. Basically Georgia, Mississippi St, South Carolina, Texas A&M vs Stanford, ASU, UCLA.

Georgia Wins: Buffalo (1 win), Missouri (3 wins), Fl Atl (1 win), Vandy (3 wins), Tenn (3 wins), Kentucky (1 win). Total opponents wins: 12
Georgia Losses: South Carolina
Mississippi St Wins: Jackson St (DII), Auburn (1 win), Troy (4 wins), South Alabama (2 wins), Kentucky(1 win), Tenn (3 wins), Middle Tenn (4 wins)
Mississippi St Losses: None
South Carolina Wins: Vandy (3 wins), ECU (5 wins), UAB (1 win), Missouri (3 wins), Kentucky (1 win), Georgia (6 wins). Total opponents wins: 19 wins
South Carolina Losses: LSU, Florida
Texas A&M Wins: SMU (3 wins), SC State (DII), Arkansas (3 wins), Ole Miss (4 wins), La Tech (6 wins) Total opponents wins: 16 wins (I don't count DII wins. They are automatic wins, especially for ranked teams)
Texas A&M Losses: LSU, Florida
Stanford Wins: SJSU (5 wins), Duke (6 wins), USC (6 wins), Arizona (4 wins), Cal (3 wins). Total opponents wins: 24 wins
Stanford Losses: Washington, ND
ASU Wins: N. Arizona (DII team), Illinois (2 wins), Utah (2 wins), Cal (3 wins), Colorado (1 win). Total opponent wins: 8 wins
ASU Losses: Oregon, Missouri
UCLA Wins: Rice (2 wins), Nebraska (5 wins), Houston (3 wins), Colorado (1 win), Utah (2 wins). Total opponent wins: 13 wins
UCLA Losses: OSU, Cal

Ranking the middle teams based on quality of opponent would put the rankings in this order:

Stanford - 24 wins - 4 BCS wins
South Carolina - 19 wins - 4 BCS wins
Texas A&M - 16 wins - 2 BCS wins
Mississippi St - 15 wins - 3 BCS wins
UCLA - 13 wins - 3 BCS wins
Georgia - 12 wins - 4 BCS wins
ASU - 8 wins - 4 BCS wins

Stanford has the best resume up to this point with wins over better opponents, one GREAT win, but one BAD loss. South Carolina has no GREAT wins, and no BAD losses. These two teams should be roughly equal in the standings with SC ranked ahead of Stanford. For SC to be ranked #13 and Stanford to be ranked #17 is probably about right. You could argue Stanford should be a spot or two higher, but not a big deal. Texas A&M should be in the mix with these teams, but ranked lower than Stanford due to Stanford having better wins. Texas A&M's marquee win is La Tech vs Stanford's being USC. #20 is about right for Texas A&M.

What this shows at this point is that almost all the teams are ranked where they should be ranked. Georgia is a little high (Georgia could end the year 10-2 with ZERO wins over bowl teams), and UCLA probably should be ranked and can blame the 9 game conference schedule.

Look at the 9 game conference schedules of UCLA and ASU. UCLA plays OSU, Cal, Stanford, and WSU from the North. They have lost to both OSU and Cal this year. If they play an 8 game conference schedule they miss out on probably OSU or Cal. That gives them an extra win. ASU plays Cal, Oregon, OSU, WSU. Let's say they miss out on OSU. That is a probably loss on ASU's schedule off and an extra win. This doesn't affect ASU, but UCLA only has one loss at this point and is ranked as well.

I would say the only team really receiving a "bias" right now is Boise St. Boise lost to a 4-4 Mich St team and beat a 4-4 BYU without scoring an offensive TD. But Boise pulls off a SEC schedule better than anyone and will finish 11-2 or 10-2 at worst. If I were to change the rankings at all, I would drop Boise out of the top 25 and add ASU.